iPhone installed base will surf to 100m on iPhone 4 tidal wave – analyst

Huge iPhone 4 pre-sales set new mobile device records. But what’s sparking this wave of interest? New features such as the video camera and faster processor inside iPhone 4 alongside the much-improved iOS 4 are just part of the package prompting this colossal interest, hints Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty.

As reported by Apple 2.0, Huberty cites a proprietary Morgan Stanley survey which suggests the upgrade rate will be over 50%. She expects the iPhone installed base to climb from 30 million at the end of 2009 to 100 million at the end of 2011.

Reasons users may upgrade include:

  • Redesigned hardware with many new important features
  • “Stickiness” of the installed base due to App store and iTunes
  • 57% of U.S. installed base is not fully upgradeable to iOS4 (i.e. no multitasking)
  • Early upgrade incentives from AT&T
  • Maturation of the installed base.

In the main, most analysts believe Apple

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