Analysts respond to AAPL earnings, rating the stock a strong buy

Photo: USA Today

Photo: USA Today

Early overnight reports collated by Fortune unsurprisingly show analysts pleased by the higher-than-expected iPhone numbers, with five out of five rating the stock a buy, their price targets ranging from $75 to $252 above yesterday’s closing value. Apple reported iPhone sales of 43.7B against expectations of 38B, and revenue of $45.6B against the consensus estimate of $43.5B.

  • Katy Huberty, Morgen Stanley: Price target $630

  • Gene Munster, Piper Jaffray: Price target $640

  • Brian Marshall, ISI: Price target $600

  • Brian White, Cantor Fitzgerald: Price target $777

  • Peter Misek, Jefferies: Price target $625  …

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Gene Munster wrote that emerging markets were driving the high iPhone sales.

The strength came from China up 28%, Brazil up 61%, Russia up 97%, Turkey 56%, and India 55% […] We estimate that iPhone unit growth would have been 11% excluding the impact of China Mobile launch which we believe added around 2 million units based on public reports.

Kate Huberty cited both Japan and China, noting that U.S. growth was also strong.

iPhone growth improved in a number of geographies, including double-digit growth in the US, 50% in Japan, and 28% in China.

Brian Marshall commented on the double-digit growth even with current products, and said that the larger iPhone 6 expected in September would represent the “mother lode.”

In our view, a large form-factor iPhone in 2H will spark a massive upgrade cycle (i.e., “mother lode”) in the ~280mil install base as well as the return of some former iPhone users from the Android platform.

Brian White glossed over his 36M iPhone sale estimate against the 43M reality, focusing on both the iPhone 6 and iWatch for the second half of the year.

In our view, more important than tonight’s results is the rollout of the iPhone 6 and entry into a new product category with the iWatch that we anticipate in the second-half of the year.

Peter Misek echoed the likely impact on shares of the iPhone 6 launch.

It is possible to be aggressively buying the shares ahead of what we believe will be a successful iPhone 6 launch.

AAPL stock climbed almost 8 percent in pre-market trading.

Screenshot 2014-04-24 07.15.10

Fortune also did its usual league table of the best and worst analyst estimates of Apple’s earnings, with The Braeburn Group’s Patrick Smellie taking top billing with an error rate of 3.4 percent, while Credit Suisse’s Kulbinder Garcha was in last place with a 12.7 percent error. The full table can be seen below, with Philip Elmer-DeWitt’s commentary worth a read.

best-and-worst-q2-2014

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Comments

  1. tasteofapple - 9 years ago

    It’s sort of funny and sad how fickle analysts are toward Apple… Every quarter they make tons of money by selling premium products, but the minute they fail to meet unrealistic and (usually made up) expectations, they are “doomed”.

    • roberthildenbrand - 9 years ago

      How else do you get people to sell the stock, just before the reports come out (so you can buy it cheaper) and then watch as everyone who sold out tries to buy back their investments…

      Then you sell the investments at a higher rate, making money.

  2. Soman Bobba (@somanbv) - 9 years ago

    @Ben, “and revenue of $45.6M against the consensus estimate of $43.5B”

    $45.6B…biggest single letter typo :P

    • Ben Lovejoy - 9 years ago

      That was an impressive one, wasn’t it? :-)

      • Soman Bobba (@somanbv) - 9 years ago

        Yeah, that was impressive.

        But I think you missed my point. You made a typo there, its Billion instead of Million.

      • Ben Lovejoy - 9 years ago

        No, I got it and corrected, thanks.

  3. jrox16 - 9 years ago

    Apple is doomed….

    = p

  4. David Imrie - 9 years ago

    Apparently they also moved 7 times as many iphones as there are people in the world. 7 iphones per person!

    @Ben “Apple reported iPhone sales of 43.7B against expectations of 38M,”

    • Aalok Shah - 9 years ago

      I know someone who has had to buy about that many phones in the last two years-he really needs to stop dropping it in water… So it is possible!

  5. Jordan Morris - 9 years ago

    Hi Ben, one more typo: “Apple reported iPhone sales of 43.7B against expectations of 38M”

    …shouldn’t that be 38B?

  6. roberthildenbrand - 9 years ago

    Well, I can safely state that I am not involved in these improved sales, because I do not have 300-500 USD for a phone that has a user interface, I cannot stand looking at.

    So I will stick to my iphone 3gs, with its iOS 6.

Author

Avatar for Ben Lovejoy Ben Lovejoy

Ben Lovejoy is a British technology writer and EU Editor for 9to5Mac. He’s known for his op-eds and diary pieces, exploring his experience of Apple products over time, for a more rounded review. He also writes fiction, with two technothriller novels, a couple of SF shorts and a rom-com!


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