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Anticipated iPhone numbers would see Apple threatening Samsung’s smartphone lead

If Apple does indeed report iPhone sales in line with analyst expectations of 66.5M units, the company could be closing in on the market share lead Samsung has held in the smartphone market since 2011, reports the WSJ.

Research company Canalys notes that Apple’s anticipated growth in iPhone sales coincides with a dramatic drop in sales of Samsung smartphones.

Samsung’s share has been falling, hurt by lackluster sales of its flagship models and the rise of homegrown brands in fast-growing emerging markets. In the third quarter, Samsung shipped about 78 million smartphones, about 25% share of the global market, down from 34% a year earlier, Canalys said.

While that still leaves Samsung well ahead for now, it’s a trendline which could see Apple regain the lead it once held … 

Apple is expected to announce its most profitable quarter ever later today, thanks to record iPhone sales generated by demand for the larger-screened iPhone 6/Plus.

While the first quarter after an iPhone launch usually marks a peak in sales for the year, Samsung is coming under increasing competition from Chinese manufacturers like Xiaomi, while Apple is seeing its Chinese sales grow. Analysts expect Apple to have sold more iPhones in China than in the US during Q1.

“It’s going to be closer than it’s ever been since Samsung took the lead,” said Chris Jones, principal analyst at Canalys.

While Apple and Samsung are rivals in the smartphone market, the two have a close relationship in the supply chain, with Samsung expected to make the majority of the A9 chips for the next-generation iPhone.

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Comments

  1. appledoomed - 9 years ago

    Apple is doomed

  2. standardpull - 9 years ago

    Samsung has been tanking exclusively because Samsung started to make poor product. Their quality is slipping and the capability of their phones are over-influenced by Samsung cost cutting.

    In the end the Samsung winds up in the discount bin and the people who buy them are merely victims of sales tactics. M grandmother has a Samsung merely due to these unscrupulous salesmen.

    Apple was able to capitalize on this, as Samsung was caught completely flat footed when faced with market forces. And other manufacturers are also embarrassing Samsung with much better devices.

    No wonder analysts are publicly thinking that Samsung will consider winding down or selling off its Smartphone business. Leadership at Samsung took a billion dollar business and flushed it.

    • boarddworld - 9 years ago

      I’m inclined to disagree. Samsung products are better than they have ever been; the Note 4 in many ways superseding the iPhone 6 Plus, but that’s likely too late. Too many have fallen victim to Samsung’s short comings in hardware & OS inconsistencies in the past.

      In regards to the iPhone 6 Plus, 2 Smartphones make me envious (as I’m very embedded/invested in the Apple ecosystem). The Note 4 & the upcoming Xiaomi Note Pro. The later is “50%” of the cost for a 6 Plus, with virtually every feature worth having doubling or trippling in performance/quality (Graphics, storage speed, HIFI 24bit 192k audio, Sony 13mp OIS camera, 2K display etc) it’s thinner without the ugly camera bump or antenna bands.

      Xiaomi and all those others like OPPO etc are the reason Samsung is failing.

  3. drhalftone - 9 years ago

    I really wish I knew what those Apple/Samsung meetings are like when they are discussing the supply chain. Is it high level talks between CEOs or lower level talks between accountants? Ben, you should do a story on that.

  4. Why do so many people ignore the fact that Apple tends to sell the same end users who simply upgrade. Yes they will have sold 70+ million phones but what needs to be reported is how much of the 70+ million were sold to existing iPhone users. Android users have enjoyed full featured large form factor phones for 2+ years and I doubt that many of them decided to move to iOS for what is still a half baked attempt to catch up.

    The FUD favouring Apple is palatable. Apple Inc. is now on the “what have you done for me lately clock” and all future iPhones could be a challenge to sell given that Apple has manifested the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus as the best phone ever made.

    • OneOkami (@OneOkami) - 9 years ago

      I have a gut feeling there was a significant increase in the number of iPhone 6/Plus purchasers who came from other device lines because of their larger form factor. I personally know people who switched from Android at least for that reason and I’ve listened to podcasts hosted by people claiming they were doing the same.

      And I don’t believe Apple will have a hard time continuing to sell future iPhones. Maybe several years into the future but I don’t see that happening in the next couple years.

      As for:
      “Apple has manifested the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus as the best phone ever made”

      I’m not sure they said those are best phones ever made but they practically always say the latest model is the best iPhone ever made. That’s just product marketing.

    • Atlas (@Metascover) - 9 years ago

      Your analysis isn’t right.
      Apple had a huge increase in sales this year, and not only thanks to China. People are buying more and more Apple products every year. Samsung on the other hand had a huge decrease in sales, and the data in some countries clearly shows that a large part of their customers switched to Apple, for example in South Korea.
      On the contrary of what you say most people who bought an iPhone 6 probably didn’t have one before, because most people keep their phone two years and sales are almost double this year than two years ago. That means that at least half the buyers didn’t have an iPhone before.

      “what is still a half baked attempt to catch up.”
      that is your opinion, and it goes contrary to the majority of reviews.

      “could be a challenge to sell given that Apple has manifested the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus as the best phone ever made.”
      have you just discovered Apple this year?

    • drhalftone - 9 years ago

      Given the fact that Samsung phone sales have dropped and the fact that Apple’s sales increase is largely due to increases in China sales, it seems pretty obvious that the sales increase is coming from Android users. If it wasn’t, then I wouldn’t expect Samsung sales to drop so precipitously even with Xiaomi. But let’s say Samsung’s drop is due to Xiaomi, then Apple increase is coming from first time Chinese smart phone buyers.

      • Atlas (@Metascover) - 9 years ago

        Yes, but in South Korea Apple’s market share rose 18% while Samsung dropped 14% and others mostly lost a little. That clearly shows that iOS has taken a lot of share from Android, given that in that country everybody has a smartphone now.

      • drhalftone - 9 years ago

        Dont tell me, tell Dylan.

  5. South Jersey Droid - 9 years ago

    Funny how it took Apple to copy Samsung and HTC, to prove Steve Jobs was an idiot, so that Apple could regain market share.

    • boarddworld - 9 years ago

      The market decides (in their own growth) what is essentially needed. Phablets are a pain to use compared to the smaller iPhone 5/S. But now a percentage of market says who cares, I must have the bigger screen, the benefits outweigh the awkwardness. That in know way pins Steve as an idiot…

    • Atlas (@Metascover) - 9 years ago

      Is making bigger screens a copy? In what world does it work like that? Apple has been making bigger and large screens for decades.

      Emulation? If Apple was following those two why didn’t they do it before? Apple couldn’t care less about what others are doing, they saw market research and chose when and how to introduce bigger screens.

      • vandiced - 9 years ago

        “Apple has been making bigger and large screens for decades”

        Jesus, the iPhone hasnt even been out ONE decade. What in the world are you fan-boying about? Mean while Samsung has been making WAY bigger screens than that of the iPhone 5 for several years. Apple? Oh about four months.

      • Atlas (@Metascover) - 9 years ago

        @vandiced

        I wasn’t talking about phones exclusively. Apple has made PC with different screen sizes, then laptops with different screen sizes, then iPods with different screen sizes. Making a phone with a larger screen is hardly revolutionary.

        “Apple? Oh about four months.”
        Exactly, Apple chose to make bigger screens when they wanted. They had increased the size with the 5 then increased it again with the 6. On the other hand no one had been using a fingerprint scanner but a few phones with terrible tech and implementation, then Apple brings TouchID and everyone rushes to copy, and still fail to make something that works as well.

    • florinnica - 9 years ago

      And this is why, when you’ll die, people will write books about you…

      • drhalftone - 9 years ago

        Steve Jobs was not a nice person. Certainly, it looks that way from the outside. But in reality, he denigrated a lot of people for not being as smart as him, or for not sharing his same vision. Remember, he is the one that orchestrated the do not hire scheme that prevent engineers from leaving Apple for competing tech companies. Perhaps, if it was your salary that was artificially depressed while Apple sales are totaling over $60 billion, you wouldn’t feel this way.

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Avatar for Ben Lovejoy Ben Lovejoy

Ben Lovejoy is a British technology writer and EU Editor for 9to5Mac. He’s known for his op-eds and diary pieces, exploring his experience of Apple products over time, for a more rounded review. He also writes fiction, with two technothriller novels, a couple of SF shorts and a rom-com!


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