Kantar: “Apple has ample opportunity for iPhone upgrades” this year and next

19 Sep 2014, London, England, UK --- London, United Kingdom. 19th September 2014 -- Hundreds of people queue in front of Apple store on Regent's street to buy the brand's new smartphone, the iPhone 6, London, UK. -- Thousands of fans have been queuing overnight near the Apple story in London to get their hands on brand's latest product, the iPhone 6, which is available in the UK from September 19. Zoltan Wiettchen from Hungary was the first to buy the product. --- Image by © Michael Tubi/Demotix/Corbis

19 Sep 2014, London, England, UK --- London, United Kingdom. 19th September 2014 -- Hundreds of people queue in front of Apple store on Regent's street to buy the brand's new smartphone, the iPhone 6, London, UK. -- Thousands of fans have been queuing overnight near the Apple story in London to get their hands on brand's latest product, the iPhone 6, which is available in the UK from September 19. Zoltan Wiettchen from Hungary was the first to buy the product. --- Image by © Michael Tubi/Demotix/Corbis

Kantar has refuted gloomy suggestions that record sales of the iPhone 6/Plus may make it tougher for Apple to persuade customers to upgrade, saying that its data “suggests Apple has ample opportunity for upgrades in Q4 2015 and 2016.”

The pessimistic view put forward in some quarters goes like this. There was a lot of pent-up demand for larger-screened iPhones. Everyone who wanted one has now bought one, so upgrade rates will now tail off significantly.

Kantar says that this view ignores the fact that people will continue to upgrade from older models. It points out that the average U.S. iPhone user upgrades every 25 months – and 31% of owners bought their current iPhone more than two years ago … 

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[In the U.S.], upgrades will [be to] not only the new iPhone models, but [also] the current iPhone 6 and 6 Plus, which should experience the drop in price we have seen in previous years for retiring flagship devices. In the US, 32% of iPhone 5s sales were generated after the launch of the iPhone 6 and, in the three months ending in July 2015, the iPhone 5s was still the fourth best-selling smartphone in the US. 

Kantar’s data shows even more promise in China, says the company.

We expect the success of the iPhone 6 and 6 Plus to not only continue, but to accelerate as prices drop. For reference, it is interesting to note that 36% of total iPhone 5s sales in urban China were made after September 2014.

In China, the average replacement cycle for an iPhone is 19 months, while almost a third of owners have now owned their existing model for more than 24 months – suggesting plenty of latent demand.

Kantar noted that Apple was seeing strong migration from Android. In Europe, 27% of new smartphone buyers migrated from Android to Apple, with 9% of American buyers doing the same.

The company reported that in the 12 months ending in June, iOS market share grew 6.3% in Japan and 2.5% in Europe, while dropping 1.3% in the USA. In the same period, Android dropped 7% in Japan, 4.1% in Europe and climbed 1.7% in the US.

If you’re planning an upgrade yourself, and want to trade-in your existing iPhone, Gazelle is promising to beat the price offered by either Apple or any carrier.

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Comments

  1. minieggseater - 7 years ago

    Based on previous trade-ins what would be an approx trade-in value of a 6+ 128gb to Apple UK ? and am I right in thinking trade-ins programs are launched about one month after the release date ? Also I’m assuming if I upgrade the 6+ to iOS9 then I can just backup and transfer to 6s+ ? or will I have to re install things. What happens with things like BBC iPlayer downloaded content ? does it get transferred in the backup/restore process ? Thanks

  2. My brother just sold his 6+ 128GB for over $700 Canadian this past weekend. Take from that what you will, but trade-in places aren’t likely to give you as much. Sell this week – quickly.

    • Ben Lovejoy - 7 years ago

      Yep, you’ll always get more if you sell privately, especially if you keep it in great condition and take decent photos for your ad.

      • Kevin Hancox - 7 years ago

        You will also find that ending an auction type sale like eBay has proved to be better if you pick your end time, normally a sunday evening… I normally run 10 days and end between 6-8pm on a sunday…

    • minieggseater - 7 years ago

      So that is roughly about 40% of the original price less ebay tax ? Any horror stories selling privately ?

      • andynormancx - 7 years ago

        Yes, plenty. Selling on ebay has become more and more of a pain.

        In the UK Mazuma will give you £430 for your 6 Plus 128GB, that is 54% of the retail price. The typical ebay selling price looks to be around £550 (before ebay fees).

        I always go with Mazuma rather than risking a sale on ebay nowadays. You might get a bit less, but it is quick, easy and pretty much risk free.

      • minieggseater - 7 years ago

        Thanks for the tip. I’ve never used this type of site as I’ve always been worried that the quote/valuation would plummet once they had the phone and hope you don’t want the hassle of paying for it to be returned. You’ve obviously had good experience with mz ?

      • andynormancx - 7 years ago

        Yes, I’ve had good experience with them. They don’t have a sliding scale of valuation, as long as the phone works, the glass isn’t damaged, it is on a UK network/unlocked and it has been removed from “Find my phone”.

        In fact they even pay the full price for iPhone 4/4S that have cracked rear glass.

        Also, if for some reason they disagree that you’ve met their requirements for full price then they return it to you for free.

  3. rogifan - 7 years ago

    The pessimistic view never made any sense to me considering Cook has said existing iPhone owners who have upgraded so far is less than 30%. There’s no possible way 70% of existing iPhone owners want a smaller screen. My guess is there are a lot of 5, 5S and 5C owners who will be upgrading this year.

  4. PMZanetti - 7 years ago

    You have to factor in the new climate in the US with AT&T and Verizon both ditching the subsidized model and embracing the financing model. Last year was the first time a lot of people began to use this method, and this year will expand upon that significantly. Why this matters is because instead of 2 year contracts with no upgrade eligibility…12 month upgrade cycles are now the norm with an acceptable trade in.

    The new way makes so much more sense for all involved. The carriers aren’t taking a bath on devices, and users can get the new device every year without a hassle.

    • Daniel Swanson - 7 years ago

      Yup. We’re right at the 12-month mark on our iPhone 6 and 6+. Can’t wait to turn them in for the new ones and only have to pay sales tax.

Author

Avatar for Ben Lovejoy Ben Lovejoy

Ben Lovejoy is a British technology writer and EU Editor for 9to5Mac. He’s known for his op-eds and diary pieces, exploring his experience of Apple products over time, for a more rounded review. He also writes fiction, with two technothriller novels, a couple of SF shorts and a rom-com!


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