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KGI: New 4-inch iPhone to cost between $400-$500, feature 12 megapixel camera, 50% price drop for iPhone 5s

In a research note for investors, KGI Securities has posted some interesting claims about the new 4 inch ‘iPhone SE’ coming from Apple in March, as reported by 9to5Mac. The iPhone SE is expected to be very similar to the iPhone 5s in appearance with slightly curved edges, but feature the latest processor internals, an A9 chip just like the iPhone 6s as well as Apple Pay and Live Photos.

KGI claims the phone will also feature a 12 megapixel camera, matching the latest iPhones in megapixels. KGI also believes the new 4 inch iPhone to sell between $400-$500 range. This would be a significantly cheaper phone than the current lineup: the year-old iPhone 6 starts at $549 …

Along with the release of the new iPhone, KGI also claims that the iPhone 5s will receive a significant price cut. It claims a 50% reduction for the 5s, which currently sells for about $450, pushing the older-generation phone down to around $250. This would be a huge boon for emerging markets, which have shown strong interest in iPhone but high prices have turned a lot of people away. A ‘brand new’ iPhone at $450 and an older model broaching the $200 off-contract price point would push a lot of new customers to iPhone, who aren’t necessarily concerned with waiting for the iPhone 7 or bigger screen (and more pricey) iPhone 6 and iPhone 6s options.

KGI estimates 131% growth in 4-inch iPhone shipments, to around 37 million units in 2016. According to the analyst, most of these sales will come from the substantially cheaper iPhone 5s, not the new 4-inch phone.

Apple is expected to announce the iPhone SE at an event on March 15th, alongside a new 9.7 inch iPad Pro (previously dubbed ‘the iPad Air 3’) with accompanying Apple Pencil and Smart Keyboard accessories. It is also prepping a spring refresh of its Apple Watch bands, including new nylon and Space Black Milanese Loop options.

Looking forward, KGI reiterates its sourcing that the iPhone 7 will have clear distinctive product segments, including single-camera and dual-camera SKUs for iPhone 7 Plus as earlier reported.

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Comments

  1. applegetridofsimandjack - 8 years ago

    Hmm don’t know… Such a huge price difference between the flagship phone and the SE? What will be the difference between the SE and the 6S beside the display size and design? Not sure people would pay 250$ more just for a larger display.

    And a 250$ 5S? The 5S is still an awesome phone. So I think this would cannibalise iPhone 6S sales.

    Don’t really believe this one bit.

    • mahmudf2014 - 8 years ago

      Probably it would be $500-549 for the new device and $250 for 5s is hard to believe like you said. It will make sense to drop the 5S in major markets like US & Europe.

    • Greg Kaplan (@kaplag) - 8 years ago

      we may have price cuts all around with the new stuff in fall too. The phones have been the same price without reduction for a long time. Perhaps be configurable to as expensive as they are now with the better camera or whatever. I still think it will be mad weird to have a camera module be a configuration. I’ve never seen that anywhere and would probably require other internal changes assuming the modules are’t going to match the same size.

      I think it’s a totally different device. Maybe iphone pro.

  2. Stephen Ellerington - 8 years ago

    Such a large price reduction on the iPhone 5s would only make sense if they were restricting it to emerging markets and discontinuing it in the USA and Europe?

  3. triankar - 8 years ago

    if the specs are what this chap says (A9 chip, same optics as the 6s), then I’m all in – and my 6s is counting days… I only hope they release it in capacities bigger than 16/32GB

  4. PhilBoogie - 8 years ago

    I wish Apple would increase their prices by 50%, not decrease them. By decreasing them they’ll attract a whole bunch of whiners, and we can’t have that. So, no, I don’t believe this 50% price drop for one second.

  5. iSRS - 8 years ago

    Remember when not having LTE didn’t hurt iPhone sales? Then, when needed, Apple added LTE? Boom, record sales.

    Remember when small screen size didn’t hurt iPhine sales? Then, when needed, Apple added larger screen size? Boom, record sales.

    Remember when Apple didn’t play in the lower cost phone market?

    See where I’m going? This makes some sense, and is likely why Tim Cook isn’t concerned with the “plateau”.

    Take a still 64-bit/Touch ID enabled 5s, cut it to $249 off contract at 8GB.

    Take the 2015 iPhone 6s internals, put it in a 4″ screen, 16GB for $399, 64 GB for $499

    I think this will be the structure. Then leave the 6 and 6s lines where they are. In the fall the 6 line goes away, the 6s takes $100 price cut, loses gold and rose gold options and 128GB size and then the 7 comes out.

  6. mytawalbeh - 8 years ago

    Apple shall make only a premium products,, I hope they’ll cut the production of 5s as cheap handsets would hurt the company’s reputation and brand.
    Give us the best in every category, nothing else.

    • PhilBoogie - 8 years ago

      What on earth for? Why wouldn’t you want to grand others a cheaper iPhone, if Apple can make it a solid one? They’ll still offer the high-end, nothing will be taken away from you, in any category.

      • iSRS - 8 years ago

        100% agree. I’ve been using Apple products non stop since 1983 at least. I remember the dark times. I don’t see having a lower cost iPhone available as hurtful in any way. Also, keep in mind, phone sales are different now. There are no “free” phones anymore.

        The 5s is still a premium phone. Not flagship in 2016, but still a premium product

  7. sabyos - 8 years ago

    About the missing IR blaster in the Apple devices, I have a solution for that.

    It’s a Kickstarter campaign soon to be launch.

    All iPhones, iPods and iPads ate supported, and then you will have the IR blaster even on an Apple device. That way you will enjoy the wonderful Apple and still have IR in your smartphone.

    Please check it out here:
    eyekickstarter com

    • o0smoothies0o - 8 years ago

      There is no missing IR blaster as that would be absurdly stupid to include. That’s all that needs to be said on that topic.

      • sabyos - 8 years ago

        Why will it be stupid to include it?

  8. Lawrence Krupp - 8 years ago

    If the 50% price drop rumor is true it would appear Apple is at least taking a look at the lower end market segment.

  9. Robert - 8 years ago

    KGI has done this before – he has no knowledge of Apple’s pricing plans. He is simply guessing and his guess are based on what he thinks would be good for investors. He has always pushed Apple in the direction of lower prices. He is tickling the ears of his clients. He’s always wrong about this!

  10. o0smoothies0o - 8 years ago

    iPhone 5s at $250 makes no sense because that would instantly make nearly 0 iPod Touch sales, even though that would be only an 8GB phone. The iPod Touch is only slightly better with an A8 and a few other minor things, but lacks Touch ID.

    The iPhone SE makes sense at $499 for a 16GB which would be $50 less than the larger display of the iPhone 6, but internals of the iPhone 6s which is $150 more.

    • waltertizzano - 8 years ago

      iPod touch is an outdated product apple doesn’t care anymore (they even removed the iPod from the home screen). THIS is the new iPod touch

      • PhilBoogie - 8 years ago

        Huh? The last version was a *massive* upgrade for the iPod touch. it gained pretty much everything people moaned about online. “Apple doesn’t care anymore” – my touch.

  11. hello_arv (@hello_arv) - 8 years ago

    Apple has already reduced prices for iPhone 5s in India to around $300 back in Dec/Jan, and have seen huge uptick in demand..
    http://www.mysmartprice.com/mobile/apple-iphone-5s-msp3216
    http://gadgets.ndtv.com/mobiles/news/iphone-5s-gets-a-big-price-cut-in-india-777813

  12. RP - 8 years ago

    Skeptical of the the 5s pricing. There is a lot of work that goes into the case alone. And wouldn’t they need those same tooling to make the SE at much higher margins?

    I would bet this is false. Maybe the discount pricing of existing inventory of the 5s to clear it for the new phone. But other than that it doesn’t sound right.

    • o0smoothies0o - 8 years ago

      Apparently the SE will have slightly rounded edges, no chamfer.

      • RP - 8 years ago

        Makes sense. Instead of running a chamfer to the finished body, they are merely changing the bit bit to a rounded edge. Shouldn’t require much to do that.

  13. Brett O'Donnell - 8 years ago

    I was a little sceptical of the $250 price point for the 5s until I noticed that some Canadian carriers are already selling the 16 Gb 5s on tab deals for $360 CAD (which with the current exchange works out to ~$275 US), so while I doubt Apple will sell it for $250 in the Apple Store it will probably allow carriers to hit price points that low with various promos.

    If it’s true that the new 4 inch iPhone (whatever it ends up being called) is basically an iPhone 6s with a smaller screen and without 3D Touch (maybe) I find it hard to believe that Apple would price it $200-250 cheaper than the 6s. I can see it initially being priced in the $500-550 range and dropping by $100 in the fall though. Just my thoughts, Apple could surprise everyone yet…

  14. Graham J - 8 years ago

    I’m not too happy about the idea of a smaller, faster iPhone undercutting the resale value of my 6.

    • waltertizzano - 8 years ago

      I’m a 6 owner and I’m VERY happy they finally came back to their senses. This (or its successor) is definitely my next iPhone

  15. lol543 - 8 years ago

    This guy is cooked!

    I’ve thought about this:

    In Australia, we still sell the 2011 13-inch MacBook Pro for A$1700* (which is ridiculous for no retina, low ram and an old fashioned hard drive), so I just can’t see a 50% price drop.

    *The 2015 13-inch MacBook Pro with Retina is 17% more (A$2000)

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Avatar for Benjamin Mayo Benjamin Mayo

Benjamin develops iOS apps professionally and covers Apple news and rumors for 9to5Mac. Listen to Benjamin, every week, on the Happy Hour podcast. Check out his personal blog. Message Benjamin over email or Twitter.