Apple is set to release its FY16 Q1 report tomorrow, and today Fortune has released their results of an analyst survey conducted ahead of Apple’s upcoming announcements. Fortune indicates that Apple may actually report the “most profitable quarter in the history of capitalism”, but investors are more concerned with the iPhone’s trajectory numbers as to indicate what may happen in the coming quarter.
KGI’s Ming-Chi Kuo, one of the few analysts we feel credible, has his Apple numbers ready for Q1 2015. The analyst projects iPhone, iPad, and Mac shipments to be 58.2 million, 10.1 million, and 4.5 million respectively. He also estimates that Apple Watch shipments are currently at 631,000 units.
Spotted: Analyst guessing Apple Watch pricing.
Analyst Gene Muster, from Piper Jaffray, has today posted a report with his predictions about Apple Watch pricing. Munster believes that Apple will improve overall margins through the sale of bands. This makes a lot of sense, especially considering Apple Retail SVP Angela Ahrendts is calling out ‘accessories’ as a key area for retail in the coming months.
Analyst Peter Misek, via StreetInsider, is saying that Apple is looking to raise iPhone 6 prices by as much as $100. Misek claims that Apple has been actively negotiating the increase with carrier partners.
Ever since hearing that Steve Jobs had “cracked” the TV industry, Apple fans have been waiting for the day the company would release an actual television set. For now, Apple has given us the Apple TV set-top box, but some analysts now believe that Apple is gearing up to deliver an actual television in the next few years. Ming-Chi Kuo today noted that an updated Apple TV box running on Apple’s new A7 processor is expected in 2014, with an actual television set to follow in 2015 or 2016. The prediction also includes a warning that Apple TV sales will be limited unless Apple can find a way to integrate new TV services and content.
We expect Apple to launch a new version of the Apple TV with an A7 processor in 2014, and we forecast 2014 shipments to total 8.2mn units. Shipment growth will be limited unless Apple is able to integrate more TV content, services and its App Store, in our view.
We believe the slowdown in Apple TV shipments suggests Apple faces challenges in integrating TV content and services. If Apple wants to launch iTV, the challenges of integrating content and service are more difficult considering the different TV content ecosystems (e.g. cable operators) in various countries. Moreover, establishing an iTV supply chain is very costly. Thus we believe iTV launch will be delayed to end-2015 or early 2016 at the earliest.
Image: abcnews.com
KGI’s Mingchi Kuo, an analyst with a solid track-record, and the man who came closest (almost) to calling opening weekend sales of the iPhone, now believes Apple shipped ‘just’ 11.4M iPhone 5c handsets in September, rather than the 17M he had earlier forecast, reports Business Insider.
Kuo is now estimating Apple shipped 11.4 million 5Cs in the September quarter, a 33% drop from his original estimate. He also says he expects 5C sales to be just 10.4 million units for the December quarter, a 10% sequential drop.
This makes some sense of the rampant discounting seen on the 5C (which actually started at Walmart before launch), but doesn’t necessarily mean that iPhone sales as a whole are down …
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An analyst note from a usually reliable Ming-Chi Kuo (郭明錤) seemingly confirms our expectation that Apple will not announce new iPads on September 10th, but at a separate event later in the year.
The note makes supply chain forecasts suggesting that assembly production of the iPad 5 and iPad Mini 2 will start with low-volume production this month, and enter mass-production in the final quarter. If the tablets were to be announced on September 10th, we would expect them to be much further along the production cycle by now.
As expected, both iPad models are said to use the A7X processor, which should see be a particularly noticeable improvement on the existing A5-based Mini.
There were a couple of surprises in the note …
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Analyst Ming-Chi-Kuo, who has a fairly strong track record in predicting future Apple products (timing not withstanding), has issued a new report with claims for some of Apple’s new products for the rest of 2013. The following is a breakdown of Kuo’s claims by product:
Brian White, Topeka Capital’s Apple analyst that previously gave some quite out there predictions for an Apple TV with “iRing”, today is saying that his recent checks with suppliers in Asia indicate Apple will include fingerprint sensor tech in the next iPhone. For what it’s worth, White says it could be the flagship feature of the 5S like Siri was with iPhone 4S. That’s something we predicted earlier in our “S” iPhone piece (via BusinessInsider):
White says, “we believe fingerprint identification technology will be part of the iPhone 5S and this is likely to be the major new feature used to market the iPhone 5S, similar to what Siri was to the iPhone 4S.”
I know… It’s a rumor that we’ve heard many times before, but now another analyst that often has accurate information is saying that same fingerprint tech could be the source of delays for the next-gen iPhone.
KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo has changed his previous predictions regarding product launches for iPhone, iPad, iPod citing a number of challenges with suppliers and the development of new features including the implementation of fingerprint technology in iPhone (via MacRumors):
Earlier we estimated that shipments of the new iPhone would begin in July (FDD version) and September (TDD version), while iPad mini 2 would hit the market in August. Currently, market consensus for shipments of iPhone 5S, low-cost iPhone and iPad mini 2 is July, July, and August, respectively. But in light of publicly available information and our knowledge of technological trends, we now think all three products will begin shipments later than our previous expectation and market consensus.
While Kuo, who previously laid out his roadmap for 2013, doesn’t provide new estimates for when the devices might ship, he does say that apple is facing challenges with finding the right color coatings that work with the fingerprint sensor rumored to be included in the next iPhone, and “technical challenges” related to the manufacturing of a Retina display for a second generation iPad mini. Needlessly to say we’ll be checking back in this summer to see how accurate these analysts reports have been.
New data from tech analysts Canalys (via TechCrunch) shows Google leading downloads, with Google Play accounting for 51 percent of the market against Apple’s 40 percent, but Apple well ahead in monetisation, taking 74 percent against “close to 20 percent” for Google.
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iRing concept by Victor Soto (via YankoDesign)
We’ve seen predictions for an Apple HDTV and a revamped Apple TV experience come and go over the last couple of years. Analysts have predicted several times since as far back as 2011 that we’d see Apple introduce its own full-fledged TV set by the end of the year, and the most vocal analyst, Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster, was still calling for a full HDTV by the end of the year with an innovative new remote control last we checked in. Today, in a note that sounds like it should have been scheduled for an April 1 release, another analyst has backed Munster’s claims that Apple will launch a full TV set (not a set-top box) in the second half of 2013.
Topeka Capital Markets analyst Brian White issued a note to clients today, following checks with supply chain sources in Asia (via BGR), claiming Apple’s “iTV” project will launch this year in 50- to 60-inch variants and come with a ring-shaped motion controller dubbed, get this, “iRing”:
The “iTV” ecosystem represents a major innovation for the $100 billion LCD TV industry that will revolutionize the TV experience forever, in our view. First of all, we believe “iTV” will be 60-inches in size (but could also include 50-55 inch options). Secondly, we believe Apple will release a miniature device called “iRing” that will be placed on a user’s finger and act as a navigation pointer for “iTV”, enhancing the motion detection experience and negating some of the functionality found in a remote.
White continued by saying Apple will include a “mini iTV” with iTV that will allow users to have a second-screen experience on a smaller, iPad-sized display:
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Piper Jaffray Apple analyst Gene Munster is out today with an updated outlook for the company, warning that Apple will not have any major product announcements until June and likely miss its June guidance with lower-than-expected iPhone and Mac sales.
In other words, the Retina iPad mini he predicted would launch in March—not happening. Instead, Munster said Apple could announce an incremental upgrade to iPad or iTunes in April and wouldn’t have a major product announcement until the iPhone 5S lands in late June. He also told Bloomberg this morning (video above) that a cheaper iPhone would be announced in September through a deal with China Mobile and ship in September or October.
Gene still prays for an Apple HDTV this year, telling Bloomberg this morning there is “no question whether it’s a set-top box versus a TV, it’s an actual TV.” He hopes Apple will announce its full-fledged television set by the end of the year.
Gene also thought Apple’s iWatch won’t make an appearance until 2014, while also noting that wearable technology has an opportunity to cannibalize the phone market within 5 to 10 years.
Topeka Capital analyst Brian White issued a report to clients today (via Forbes) to provide what he thinks Apple has in store for the much-rumored low-cost iPhone. According to White, Apple will introduce the lower-priced iPhone as early as June. This is of course something we heard before from previous reports, but White also predicted pricing and a possible name for the device…
Some new information that White added: He said the device will be called the “iPhone mini” or “iPhone Air” and sell for an unsubsidized price of $250 to $300.
“A $250-$300 price range would also be competitive with China-based Xiaomi that offers a high-end phone experience at a mid-range price of ~$320 in China,” he writes. “We believe a $250-to-$300 price point will allow Apple to significantly expand its reach in the smartphone market and better address developing markets such as China, while opening up more opportunities in Brazil, Russia, India and elsewhere.”
We reported this morning that Apple has now begun internally seeding a prototype next-gen iPhone with the A5X chip that debuted in the new iPad and 1GB of RAM. Based on his recent trips to China and Taiwan, Topeka Capital Market analyst Brian White, who has Apple’s price target at $1,001 as of this morning, shared some new details of what he described as “the buzz around the new iPhone 5.” According to White (via Barron’s), he expects a “sleek” new iPhone to launch in the December quarter. He also expects the device to sport a new 4-inch display and include 4G LTE capabilities.
White set his price target based on an expected August or September unveiling of the product. He also claimed the launch “could be extraordinary” by dwarfing previous launches and driving the stock closer to our $1,001 price target.” According to the report, Apple is expected to start component production for the “iPhone 5” in June.
White also claimed sales of the new iPad could have been higher if not for a production issue with panel makers related to the new Retina display. Last month, Apple announced its “strongest iPad launch yet” with sales of three million new iPads on its debut weekend…
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A new report by Global Equities Research says Apple’s iTunes will hit $13 billion in revenue in fiscal 2013. To reach that point, GER says iTunes will grow at a rate of 39%, or 13% a year. This report cites all parts of the Apple store ecosystem including music, apps, and books, will contribute to the growth. GER believes the iBookstore will have a major role.
Our research with students indicates that they would rather have books on iPad vs. Kindle.
The analyst also believe the rising number of iPad apps will contribute to the growth. Six months ago the average iPhone and iPad user only had 15 apps, and now they have 45. Who knows, maybe with the announcement of the iPhone 5 and iPad 3 these numbers could shoot even higher.
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