Kuo suggests iPhone shipments will drop 15% this year – and iPhone 16 won’t help

Ming-Chi Kuo is out with a new investor note today focused on his predictions for the iPhone in 2024. The Apple analyst says his latest supply chain survey suggests Apple has “lowered its 2024 iPhone shipments of key upstream semiconductor components to about 200 million units.”

According to Kuo, this marks a decline of around 15% year-over-year for iPhone shipments. He attributes this fall to factors including a slowdown of iPhone sales in China, writing that “Apple’s weekly shipments in China have declined by 30–40% YoY in recent weeks.”

Kuo continues:

iPhone 15 series and new iPhone 16 series shipments will decline by 10–15% YoY in 1H24 and 2H24, respectively (compared to iPhone 14 series shipments in 1H23 and iPhone 15 series shipments in 2H23, respectively).

The iPhone faces structural challenges that will lead to a significant decline in shipments in 2024, including the emergence of a new paradigm in high-end mobile phone design and the continued decline in shipments in the Chinese market.

Looking ahead to the iPhone 16 lineup coming later this year, Kuo says we shouldn’t expect significant design changes or new artificial intelligence features this year.

“It is expected that Apple will not launch new iPhone models with significant design changes and the more comprehensive/differentiated GenAI ecosystem/applications until 2025 at the earliest,” he writes. “Until then, it will likely harm Apple’s iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth.”

9to5Mac’s Take

Take it with a grain of salt. Other rumors have suggested the iPhone 16 lineup will feature notable changes such as the addition of a capture button and bigger screens.

I find Kuo’s reporting on the fate of the iPhone a bit dramatic. I don’t think the iPhone not having “more comprehensive/differentiated” generative AI applications is an example of Apple harming iPhone shipment momentum and ecosystem growth. Furthermore, more reliable sources like Bloomberg have reported a number of times that Apple has significant new AI features planned for iOS 18 this fall.