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Gartner and IDC Numbers out…but what if iPhones were computers…

Gartner and IDC just released their most recent numbers on PC Marketshare and Apple, as expected, climbed up the ranks again.  Depending who you ask they are either slightly ahead or slightly behind the Acer/Gateway/Packard Bell mashup which puts them around tied for third place.  The interesting thing is iPod touches and iPhones aren’t counted as computer sales.  Should they be?

  • iPhones have the same specs as laptops had about 5 years ago.
  • They can do most of the things a full computer can
  • They are as functional as UMPCs which are tallied in the total.
  • They are used in much the same way as computers, replacing computers much of the time for people on the move
  • Unsubsidized cost?  I’d venture to bet 50% of Dell and HP machines are less expensive that unsubidized iPhones
  • Some pretty smart people say they are computers

If you do count iPhones and iPod touches…you get a whole new ball game.  That three million computer lead that HP and Dell have on Apple starts to shrink.  Apple sold a million iPhones last week.  iPods are also flying off the shelves and with the 2.0 software, they do Exchange, Cisco VPN, Office apps, IM,  and have 1000 3rd party apps waiting for them.  That is a pretty good computer platform if you ask us! 

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Apple and Adobe butting heads?

The Wall Street Journal is postulating on a behind the scenes Apple – Adobe skirmish about putting Flash in the iPhone.  I think the argument can be summed up with a sentence:

Who will control video on the mobile web?

Need evidence?  If Apple were planning on releasing Flash on the iPhone, why would Youtube be converting their library to H.264?  Yes, the Quicktime quality is better – but not that much better than Flash on a 480×320 inch screen.  What is more important is that every Youtube video put on the web is effectively a interface for a Flash interfaced mobile video platform.

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MacBook Air

YEP – Macbook Air.  Check back for more coverage…

  • At the iPod refresh launch, one of our sources told us that there wouldn’t be any significant  MacBook refreshes until Macworld.  We published that info in the post-event post.  That info was recorded by Macrumors as "Of interest, they most recently posted a small blurb indicating that MacBook Pros would see updates in January."
  • We then got a report with a blurry/dark photograph in September of darker (and standard color), much  smaller Macbook Pros.  Same size screen as the MacBook but way slimmer case, etc.
  • Around the new year, someone started alerting the rumors sites that there was going to be a "MacBook Air" product at Macworld.  Also that it was the "worst kept secret at Apple" (which is very suspicious!)  His/her words sound very similar to this Digg commenter.
  • Appleinsider and Arstechnica posted pictures of the Macworld posters with the phrase: 2008 There is something in the air
  • Macrumors, seeing the correlation between the posters and the earlier rumor submissions posted that they thought the name would be "MacBook Air".  The similarities (assuming here – and whatever other info they might have had) was enough to make the statement on the name.
  • We had previously heard that Intel WiMAX teams were all over Apple months and months earlier and thought there might be a connection as well.  This might be the reason why the "Air".  Also Valleywag jumped on this.
  • We found a very well done image (above right) and some interesting hypotheses at Macpredictions.com on a MacBook Air – including Power-by induction – which Apple patented a year ago.  Since then, many more images have shown up across the internet.  Macpredictions was certainly the fastest and one of the most professional looking.   He is in London and unconnected to Apple.
  • One of our readers, Jon Cotton, found a mention of a "MacBook Air" on one of Adium’s usage log reports.  Subsequent verification from Google Cache reveals that this log entry was made on January 9th, BEFORE the Macworld posters were revealed.  Therefore, someone would have had to have known about the posters and made the reference to "Air"
  • UPDATED: MacDailyNews via Macrumors has some very telling domain name information.  IS it possible with the cat out of the bag, Apple is jumping on all of the domains it can?
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15 Billion dollars, Apple? Someone is doing some Christmas shopping

So it came out last week that Apple had been saving a bit of money.  They are likely going to buy something and the internet blew up with ideas on what that should be.  Ars came up with Adobe, Tivo, Nintendo.  We aren’t feeling any of those – here’s why:

  • Adobe – there is too much overlap in products.  Final Cut/Premiere.  Aperture/Lightroom, etc, etc.  Adobe has a great portfolio of applications but overall the line isn’t close enough to Apple’s core competency.  Plus the two companies aren’t getting along that well anymore.  Adobe is also pricey.
  • Tivo – It is a great technology for the next 3-5 years.  Soon though, networks will be broadcasting their content over the net by themselves.  The technology to leverage advertising will make them more than the currently falling costs of broadcasting over the net – so it won’t matter.  As someone who has to watch college football on a slingbox, I say hurry the fsck up.
  • Nintendo – great idea, but they are too expensive.  Any buyout of Nintendo would have to be more like a merger.  Can you see Steve Jobs agreeing to a merger and taking in top management?  Us neither.

So, we’ve come up with three companies that Apple should buy – and which they actually have a shot at.  Yep, telecoms:

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Thoughts on Wireless Access – part 2

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Thoughts on Wireless Access

We were Inspired by Steve Wozniak’s comment the other day on Apple’s stance on SIM Locking vs. DRM locking.  We decided to do something about it.  What if we took Apple’s position on DRM for music and applied it to the SIM locking of the iPhone?  Does Apple stand up to its own scrutiny on the locking in of content and services?  For this experiment we did the following: 

  1. We took Steve Jobs Open Letter to the Music industry
  2. Copied it verbatim
  3. Did a Text Edit – Find/Replace on it using the following:
    cd -> Home Wifi
    iPod -> iPhone
    music -> wireless data
    iTunes -> AT&T
    MP3 -> GSM
    AAC -> EDGE
    leak -> hack
    DRM -> SIM lock
    copied -> used
    song -> phone
    Screen
    Capture
  4. Then we cleaned it up and removed iTunes specific data.

Below you will find the results of this experiment.  Notice how just exchanging a few words turns everything around on Apple.

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Apple "Analysts" don't seem to be very good

So doing the last post, we had to do some research on Shaw Wu an Analyst for American Technology Research who had made a bad call on the numbers of iPhone unlocking. Thankfully, MacRumors has put together a list of Shaw’s predictions and their subsequent  "truthieness".  He’s riding about 15% correct…which is like picking horses at the track based on their names.   Given all of this, he has a 4/5 star rating from Yahoo and many people make investment decisions based on his guidance.   Some of the better ones (from Macrumors):

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Apple flips script, buys PowerPC chipmaker PA Semi

Wow, we didn’t see this coming at all.  Apple buys PA Semi, a fabless chip company that specializes in high performance, low power PowerPC based processors for $278 million in cash.   The founder of P.A.Semi, Dan Dobberpuhl, has a history of designing StrongARM chips – the kind currently in use in the iPod Touch and iPhone – from his former work at DEC.

Let’s get this straight.  This isn’t a company that makes graphics chips or coprocessors or anything else.  They make CPUs and they are based on the Power architecture that they license from IBM.    This means that Apple’s long term strategy includes the PowerPC platform?  In their handhelds – iPods and iPhones?   Will we see a  2Ghz PowerPC iPhone in the future? 

How about desktops?  Gaming systems? 

Apple Statement – Steve Jobs -February 6, 2007 9to5Mac Revised Apple Statment for use with iPhones
With the stunning global success of Apple’s iPod music player and iTunes online music store, some have called for Apple to “open” the digital rights management (DRM) system that Apple uses to protect its music against theft, so that music purchased from iTunes can be played on digital devices purchased from other companies, and protected music purchased from other online music stores can play on iPods. Let’s examine the current situation and how we got here, then look at three possible alternatives for the future. With the stunning success of Apple’s iPhone and AT&T wireless data service, some have called for Apple to “open” the SIM Lock system that Apple uses to protect its iPhone from obtaining data purchased from other online wireless data providors so that it can be used on iPhones. Let’s examine the current situation and how we got here, then look at three possible alternatives for the future.